March 7, 2017
There have been growing whispers in recent months that the online shopping boom in China may be moderating. A new Goldman Sachs report, however, predicts B2C e-commerce growth in the country to remain red hot, more than doubling from $750 billion in 2016 to $1.7 trillion by 2020. A wider variety of goods available online, more spending from consumers based in small cities and a move toward more omnichannel activity will drive increased growth, which had slowed down last year, causing some to question the opportunity in China for e-commerce merchants.
“While there have been concerns of a slowdown following deceleration in growth to mid-20 percent in 2016, we expect online retail growth to sail on at 23 percent CAGR over 2016-2020, continuing to grow at nearly triple the pace of offline retail,” the Goldman report said.
Analysts for the investment bank said the Fast Moving Consumer Goods category (groceries, personal and healthcare products and other items typically found in supermarkets) will be the biggest opportunity to provide growth. More traditional online top sellers will continue to grow too, albeit at a slightly lower rate, Goldman said. Researchers predicted apparel will grow 20 percent per year through 2020 and electronics revenue will add 13 percent per year during the same time.
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