September 13, 2016
B2C e-commerce will grow 45 percent per year for the next four years to $28 billion, according to a new report. A research note from brokerage Kotak Institutional Equities predicts a significant increase in the number of online buyers while average annual spend holds steady into the year 2020.
“We estimate that the Indian e-tail market size could reach $28 billion by fiscal 2019-20, led by an increase in number of buyers to 110 million (assuming one person per urban household to shop online), and stable annual spends of around $260 per consumer,” Kotak Institutional Equities said in its research note.
The report said while the retail e-commerce user base in India currently sits where China’s did in 2009 (330 million), several factors, including low online buyer penetration, will keep growth rates from mirroring the triple-digit increases experienced by China. Also, though mobile devices have spearheaded Internet penetration in both countries due to inadequate wired infrastructure, much higher penetration of broadband mobile networks in China compared to India will prevent the latter from reaching the stratospheric growth rates of the former.